2024 Elections: Competitive Races

Crimson Goes Blue is working around the clock for a fierce 2024 election season. Biden’s reelection is priority #1, supporting him directly and via support for other Democrats. After carefully researching upcoming Senate, House, and state elections, we’ve compiled a list of races where our members can use their time, money, and energy most effectively.  We’ll let you know about our virtual and in-person activities to support the races in these states.

How we decide which races to target

  • To make the best use of your time and funds, we avoid races that Democrats are likely to win or lose. Instead, we choose competitive races -- where there’s a good chance of affecting the outcome.

  • We also select states with competitive races in both the House and Senate, and states that are likely to affect the presidential election.

  • In the Senate:  We’re focusing on six of the most competitive races.

  • In the House: Out of 435 races, 43 are competitive. We’ve chosen 25. (With new candidates, primary results, and voter map changes, our priorities may shift.)

  • We target races in areas where our members live.

Look below for the breakdown of competitive U.S. Senate and House races, and state legislatures.

Support for North Carolina’s Don Davis is critical for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

The big picture…

PRESIDENCY: Biden’s reelection is by far the most important race for the future of democracy in America. It will be very close and will depend on wins in our target states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).

U.S. HOUSE: The Democrats are poised for a highly competitive race to take back the House in 2024. In order to win back the majority, we only need to flip five seats back. Races in New York and California will be crucial.

U.S. SENATE: Democrats currently hold a slim 51-seat majority in the Senate – and holding on to our majority will take everything we’ve got. We’re targeting six of the seven most competitive seats (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). Biden won all of these states, except for Ohio.

STATE LEGISLATURES: Crimson Goes Blue has identified five states where Democratic victories can tip the balance of power. In three states (AZ, NH, PA), Democrats have the opportunity to gain control of a chamber, and in two states (NC, WI), we have the opportunity to hold onto a veto-proof margin of seats which empowers the Democratic Governor to veto the worst laws passed by Republican legislatures.

Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey is a must-win for Democrats to keep control of the Senate.

  • AZ-01: NE Phoenix, Scottsdale
    David Schweikert*, Republican
    Toss Up

    AZ-06: SE AZ and Eastern Tuscon
    Kristen Engel, Democrat
    Juan Ciscomani*, Republican
    Toss Up

  • CA-13: Mid-Central Valley
    Adam Gray, Democrat
    John Duarte*, Republican
    Toss Up

    CA-22: South-Central Valley
    Rudy Salas, Democrat
    David Valadao*, Republican
    Lean Republican

    CA-27: Northern LA County
    George Whitesides, Democrat
    Mike Garcia*, Republican
    Toss Up

    CA-41: Riverside to Palm Springs
    Will Rollins, Democrat
    Ken Calvert*, Republican
    Toss Up

    CA-45: Western Orange County
    Derek Tran, Democrat
    Michelle Steel*, Republican
    Lean Republican

    CA-47: Coastal Orange County
    Dave Min, Democrat
    Scott Baugh, Republican
    Lean Democrat

  • MI-07: Lansing, Detroit exurbs
    Curtis Hertel, Democrat
    Tom Barrett, Republican
    Toss Up

    MI-08: Flint, Midland, Saginaw
    OPEN
    (Current Rep. Dan Kildee will not seek reelection in 2024)

    MI-10: Macomb County
    John James*, Republican
    Lean Republican

  • NC-01: Inland, NE NC
    Don Davis*, Democrat
    Toss Up

  • NV-03: SW Las Vegas
    Susie Lee*, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

  • NY-04: Southern Nassau County
    Laura Gillen, Democrat
    Anthony D’Esposito*, Republican
    Lean Democrat

    NY-17: Lower Hudson Valley
    Mondaire Jones, Democrat
    Mike Lawler*, Republican
    Toss Up

    NY-18: Upper Hudson
    Pat Ryan*, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

    NY-19: SE Upstate NY
    Josh Riley, Democrat
    Marc Molinaro*, Republican
    Toss Up

    NY-22: Syracuse, Utica
    Brandon Williams*, Republican
    Lean Democrat

  • OH-09: Toledo and NW OH
    Marcy Kaptur*, Democrat
    Derek Merrin, Republican
    Toss Up

    OH-13: Akron, Canton
    Emilia Sykes*, Democrat
    Kevin Coughlin, Republican
    Toss Up

  • PA-07: Lehigh Valley
    Susan Wild*, Democrat
    Ryan Mackenzie, Republican
    Toss Up

    PA-08: Scranton, NE PA
    Matt Cartwright*, Democrat
    Robert Bresnahan, Republican
    Toss Up

    PA-10: Harrisburg area
    Janelle Stelson, Democrat
    Scott Perry*, Republican
    Lean Republican

    PA-17: Pittsburgh suburbs
    Chris Deluzio*, Democrat
    Rob Mercuri, Republican
    Lean Democrat

  • WI-03: Western WI, Eau Claire
    Derrick Van Orden*, Republican
    Lean Republican

U.S. House: Competitive Races Targeted by Crimson Goes Blue

For races in each state, click the plus sign.

(* = incumbent)

U.S. Senate: Competitive Races Targeted by Crimson Goes Blue

For races in each state, click the plus sign.

(* = incumbent)

  • Ruben Gallego, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

  • Debbie Stabenow, Democrat
    (open seat)
    Lean Democrat

  • Jacky Rosen*, Democrat
    Toss Up

  • Sherrod Brown*, Democrat
    Bernie Moreno, Republican
    Toss Up

  • Bob Casey Jr.*, Democrat
    Dave McCormick, Republican
    Lean Democrat

  • Tammy Baldwin*, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

State legislatures are increasingly important in determining key issues for Americans — access to abortion, gun safety, what can be taught in school, fair legislative maps. We’re targeting two types of states: those where we can win the majority, and those where we need to keep enough seats to maintain the Democratic governor’s veto power.

State Legislatures: Competitive Races Targeted by Crimson Goes Blue

To see the current breakdown for each state, click the plus sign.

  • STATE HOUSE
    2 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 29; Republican: 31
    Vacant: 1

    STATE SENATE
    2 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 14; Republican: 16

  • STATE HOUSE
    6 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 195; Republican: 201
    Independent: 2; Vacant: 2

    STATE SENATE
    4 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 10; Republican: 14

  • STATE HOUSE:
    1 seat Democrat majority

    Democrat: 102; Republican: 101

    STATE SENATE
    6 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 22; Republican: 28

State Legislatures: Keep Veto Power for Democratic Governor

To see the current breakdown for each state, click the plus sign.

  • STATE HOUSE
    24 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 48; Republican: 72

    STATE SENATE
    10 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 20; Republican: 30

  • STATE HOUSE
    29 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 35; Republican: 64
    Vacant: 1

    STATE SENATE
    11 seat Republican majority

    Democrat: 11; Republican: 22

U.S. House: Other Competitive Races

For races in each state, click the plus sign.

  • AK - AL (at large, all of Alaska)
    Mary Peltola*, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

  • CO-03: Western Colorado
    (Lauren Boebert switched out of this district.)
    Lean Republican

    CO-08: North of Denver, Greeley
    Yadira Caraveo*, Democrat
    Toss Up

  • IL-17: North-central cities
    Eric Sorensen*, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

  • IN-01, Northwest
    Frank J. Mrvan*, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

  • IA-03: SW Iowa, Des Moines
    Lanon Baccam, Democrat
    Zach Nunn*, Republican
    Lean Republican

  • LA-05
    Julia Letlow*, Republican
    Toss up

  • ME-02, Northern Maine
    Jared Golden*, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

  • MN-02:
    Angie Craig*, Democrat
    Lean Democrat

  • NE-02: Omaha area
    Tony Vargas, Democrat
    Don Bacon*, Republican
    Lean Republican

  • NJ-07: SW NYC suburbs
    Sue Altman, Democrat
    Thomas Keans Jr.*, Republican
    Toss Up

  • NM-02: South NM and W Albuquerque
    Gabe Vasquez*, Democrat
    Toss up

  • OR-05: South of Portland; Central OR
    Janelle Bynum, Democrat
    Lori Chavez-DeRemer*, Republican
    Toss Up

    OR-06: Portland suburbs, Salem
    Andrea Salinas*, Republican
    Lean Democrat

  • TX-34: Gulf Coast
    Vicente Gonzalez*, Republican
    Lean Democrat

  • VA-02: Hampton Roads suburbs
    Jen Kiggans*, Republican
    Lean Republican

    VA-07: Fredericksburg area
    Open
    Lean Democrat

  • WA-03: Southwest WA
    Marie Gluesenkamp Perez*, Democrat
    Toss Up

U.S. Senate: Other Competitive Races

For races in each state, click the plus sign.

  • Jon Tester*, Democrat
    Toss up